CEO confidence drops into negative territory

Data: The Conference Board and The Business Council; Chart: Axios/Emily PeckCEO confidence in the U.S. economy sank into negative territory earlier this month, finds a survey out Thursday morning from the Conference Board.Why it matters: Business leaders are mind-melding with most consumers, whose opinions on the economy are now lower than during the pandemic.Such sour sentiment is shaping up as a key issue in the midterms just weeks away.Where it stands: The CEO Confidence Index fell to 46 in the most recent period, down from 52 just three months ago — any number below 50 connotes negative sentiment.The nonprofit Conference Board and the Business Council surveyed 131 Fortune 500 CEOs from Sept. 21-Oct. 5.The survey measures how chief executives at major public companies feel about current economic conditions and their expectations for the economy and their own industries over the next six months.By the numbers: 41% of CEOs expected economic conditions to worsen — up from 19% in the previous quarter.Executives' concerns over cybersecurity, AI and geopolitics rose significantly from three months ago.94% of CEOs cited cybersecurity threats among their top AI-related concerns.The surge in energy prices — particularly diesel, which is crucial to companies' energy costs — also contributed to the fall in sentiment, Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board, tells Axios."All these inflationary shocks, one after the the other, is weighing down on the confidence of both CEOs and consumers," she says. Between the lines: The key worry when CEO moods darken is the spillover into the economy, as they pull back on spending and hiring. Reality check: Despite their dimming views, CEOs have for the most part maintained their spending plans, per the survey. Case in point: A separate survey also out Thursday morning found that 89% of U.S. CEOs said they expected to increase headcount over the next three years as AI creates more business opportunities."As we put more AI into our processes and platforms, the capacity opens up," Tim Walsh, the CEO of KPMG, which conducted the survey, told Axios' Nathan Bomey. "What you're seeing there is CEOs being really optimistic that they can actually expand their business, which is going to result in a bigger workforce for them."The bottom line: CEOs are gloomy about the economy, but their dark mood hasn't yet translated into a meaningful pullback in investment plans.