10 economic points related to the Trump-Xi summit 2026

On Sept. 24, US President Donald Trump and China President Xi Jinping will hold their second summit meeting in Washington DC. Their first meeting was last May in Beijing. I assembled some macroeconomic data comparing the US and China over the past two decades (2005 and 2025). I also included other large economies per indicator. These are the numbers and emerging trends. 1. Using GDP size at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) values, China’s economy is much larger than the US’, with $41.2 trillion vs. $30.8 trillion in 2025. In 2005, the US’ GDP size was twice that of China. 2. In GDP size at nominal values (GDP in local currency divided by average US$ exchange rate), the US is larger at $30.8 trillion vs. $19.6 trillion. 3. When it comes to power generation, China produces more than two times what the US does — 10,575 terawatt-hours (TWh) vs. 4,772 TWh in 2025. This is consistent with what we see in GDP size in PPP values, not nominal values. 4. Over the past two decades, the GDP size of China at PPP values and nominal values expanded 6.9 times and 8.4 times, respectively, while the US expanded only 2.4 times. In power generation, China expanded 4.2 times while the US growth was nearly flat (see Table 1). 5. Both the US and China are net exporters of capital and foreign direct investments (FDIs). In 2025, the US’ outward stock (outstock) FDI was $6.65 trillion or nearly twice China’s $3.58 trillion. 6. When it comes to inward stock (instock) of FDI, the US is still the largest, more than five times more than China — $17.96 trillion vs. $3.76 trillion. 7. China as an exporter of capital has expanded by 63 times in two decades while the US expanded only 1.8 times. When it comes to instock FDI expansion, China has expanded nearly 14 times (see Table 2). 8. China was larger than the US when it comes to merchandise exports, at $3.77 trillion vs. $2.18 trillion in 2025, although back in 2005 the US had more exports than China. 9. When it comes to balance of trade (BOT), China has had a perennial trade surplus with the US, with $1.19 trillion in 2025 or $99 billion/month surplus, while the US has had a perennial trade deficit, -$1.32 trillion or -$110 billion/month, or -$3.67 billion/day (see Table 3). 10. Trump’s use of high tariffs vs. China and many other countries to reduce the US trade deficit is not working, it has only contributed to higher US inflation. China is exporting not only high-value manufacturing products, it is exporting factories, entire industrial ecosystems, to many countries in Asia, Africa, and South America. The US’ $40.1-trillion outstanding public debt is a big drag in attaining high growth. At current 5% 10-year bond rates, even if Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent miraculously stop any new borrowing, the US public debt would still rise to $42.1 trillion by September 2027, with $2 trillion in interest payments alone. Lessons for the Philippines: We should remain neutral when it comes to the ongoing economic, technological, political, and military rivalry between the two superpowers. Currently the US is a loser, in economics and trade (see the numbers above), and since it is wallowing in military quagmires in Ukraine and Iran. The war mongering voices in the Philippines should be ignored and not funded with trillions of pesos in tax money. We should not aim to “fight China,” and instead enter into endless negotiations, and joint explorations for oil-gas in the contested sea. We should fight poverty via more investments and job creation; fight the continuing peso depreciation via more merchandise exports and a lower trade deficit. We should fight blackouts and high electricity prices via more new baseload power plants like coal and gas. We should fight heavy traffic congestion by building more flyovers, tunnels, road interchanges, and elevated U-turns. We should fight frequent flooding via more dams and more man-made lakes. We should fight corruption and waste in public spending. Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is the president of Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. Research Consultancy Services, and Minimal Government Thinkers. He is an international fellow of the Tholos Foundation. minimalgovernment@gmail.com